Discussion:
Coronavirus: World O'Meters
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BrritSki
2020-03-17 08:43:55 UTC
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This is encouraging, but we need to see this trend continue for days if
not weeks.

<https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/>

Makes one wonder if the initial strategy was the correct one as the new
one that so many were clamouring for [1] has not had time to have an
impact. Of course it could be that people were already implementing the
new strategy themselves and that is what made the difference.

[1] often the same people who are complaining that pubs clubs etc should
have been officially closed so that they could make insurance claims. Do
they understand how insurance works ? Lots of people pay in so that if
a few suffer a calamity it can pay out, but if 100% suffer the calamity
the money is going to run out pretty soon, and they'll get back on
average less than their annual contribution.
BrritSki
2020-03-17 08:45:53 UTC
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Post by BrritSki
This is encouraging, but we need to see this trend continue for days if
not weeks.
<https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/>
This site is I think a day behind (it doesn't show the case that was
reported in Bedford yesterday) but shows the same drop 2 days ago:

<https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html?#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14>
BrritSki
2020-03-17 08:53:17 UTC
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Post by BrritSki
Post by BrritSki
This is encouraging, but we need to see this trend continue for days
if not weeks.
<https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/>
This site is I think a day behind (it doesn't show the case that was
<https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html?#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14>
And an interesting paper here which is possibly the modelling basis used
to inform Gov't decisions. I've only read the summary so far. The big
problem I see with the new strategy is that we may have to keep it up
for 18 moths. That's the length of time they expect for a vaccine to be
developed. I suspect that it will be much shorter than that, possibly
the 3 or 4 months that have already been suggested, but I'm not
convinced that even that length of time is sustainable.

<https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf>
BrritSki
2020-03-17 08:56:12 UTC
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Post by BrritSki
Post by BrritSki
This is encouraging, but we need to see this trend continue for days
if not weeks.
<https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/>
This site is I think a day behind (it doesn't show the case that was
<https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html?#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14>
And an interesting paper here ...
<https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf>
This was posted on FB by Robin Somes, late of this parish. In another
thread one of his friends said that people were being stupid about
toilet tissue and should order it online and then print it off at home.
I've tried it and can guarantee it works. Avoid photo paper though -
it left a bit of a filmm so they'll need to develop it a lot further.
Jenny M Benson
2020-03-17 09:57:17 UTC
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Post by BrritSki
This was posted on FB by Robin Somes, late of this parish. In another
thread one of his friends said that people were being stupid about
toilet tissue and should order it online and then print it off at home.
 I've tried it and can guarantee it works. Avoid photo paper though -
it left a bit of a filmm so they'll need to develop it a lot further.
I like the one that was forwarded to me from Facebook: a cat doing what
cats have always done and the caption is "Now you humans have no loo
rolls left ... welcome to Our World."
--
Jenny M Benson
Wrexham, UK
Chris McMillan
2020-03-18 14:36:03 UTC
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Post by Jenny M Benson
Post by BrritSki
This was posted on FB by Robin Somes, late of this parish. In another
thread one of his friends said that people were being stupid about
toilet tissue and should order it online and then print it off at home.
 I've tried it and can guarantee it works. Avoid photo paper though -
it left a bit of a filmm so they'll need to develop it a lot further.
I like the one that was forwarded to me from Facebook: a cat doing what
cats have always done and the caption is "Now you humans have no loo
rolls left ... welcome to Our World."
Splutter!

Sincerely Chris
Penny
2020-03-17 09:02:40 UTC
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On Tue, 17 Mar 2020 08:43:55 +0000, BrritSki <***@gmail.com>
scrawled in the dust...
Post by BrritSki
This is encouraging, but we need to see this trend continue for days if
not weeks.
<https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/>
I'm not sure how you can draw any conclusions from that. AIUI they stopped
testing people around 14th.
--
Penny
Annoyed by The Archers since 1959
BrritSki
2020-03-17 09:32:47 UTC
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Post by Penny
scrawled in the dust...
Post by BrritSki
This is encouraging, but we need to see this trend continue for days if
not weeks.
<https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/>
I'm not sure how you can draw any conclusions from that. AIUI they stopped
testing people around 14th.
Not my understanding at all. They are certainly not doing enough
testing, and it may be limited to hospitals, but I can't find any data
on number of tests done by day to draw any conclusions about trends.
BrritSki
2020-03-17 09:37:01 UTC
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Post by BrritSki
Post by Penny
scrawled in the dust...
Post by BrritSki
This is encouraging, but we need to see this trend continue for days if
not weeks.
<https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/>
I'm not sure how you can draw any conclusions from that. AIUI they stopped
testing people around 14th.
Not my understanding at all. They are certainly not doing enough
testing, and it may be limited to hospitals, but I can't find any data
on number of tests done by day to draw any conclusions about trends.
Just found this here:
<https://www.gov.uk/government/news/coronavirus-testing>

"As the UK has moved from ‘contain’ and into the ‘delay’ phase of novel
coronavirus (COVID-19), Public Health England (PHE), together with NHS
England and the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC), has agreed
we will need to prioritise testing for those most at risk of severe
illness from the virus. Our aim is to save lives, protect the most
vulnerable, and relieve pressure on our NHS.
Those in hospital care for pneumonia or acute respiratory illness will
be priority. This will mean those most at risk will be identified as
early as possible, speeding up access to the right care and treatment.
People who are in the community with a fever or cough do not usually
need testing. Instead, tests will primarily be given to:
all patients in critical care for pneumonia, acute respiratory distress
syndrome (ARDS) or flu like illness
all other patients requiring admission to hospital for pneumonia, ARDS
or flu like illness
where an outbreak has occurred in a residential or care setting, for
example long-term care facility or prisons"

If they are prioritising those people, and if they are doing the same
number of tests (they may not be), you'd expect the numbers infected to
go UP not down.
Penny
2020-03-17 10:55:29 UTC
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Permalink
On Tue, 17 Mar 2020 09:37:01 +0000, BrritSki <***@gmail.com>
scrawled in the dust...
Post by BrritSki
Post by BrritSki
Post by Penny
scrawled in the dust...
Post by BrritSki
This is encouraging, but we need to see this trend continue for days if
not weeks.
<https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/>
I'm not sure how you can draw any conclusions from that. AIUI they stopped
testing people around 14th.
Not my understanding at all. They are certainly not doing enough
testing, and it may be limited to hospitals, but I can't find any data
on number of tests done by day to draw any conclusions about trends.
<https://www.gov.uk/government/news/coronavirus-testing>
"As the UK has moved from ‘contain’ and into the ‘delay’ phase of novel
coronavirus (COVID-19), Public Health England (PHE), together with NHS
England and the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC), has agreed
we will need to prioritise testing for those most at risk of severe
illness from the virus. Our aim is to save lives, protect the most
vulnerable, and relieve pressure on our NHS.
Those in hospital care for pneumonia or acute respiratory illness will
be priority. This will mean those most at risk will be identified as
early as possible, speeding up access to the right care and treatment.
People who are in the community with a fever or cough do not usually
all patients in critical care for pneumonia, acute respiratory distress
syndrome (ARDS) or flu like illness
all other patients requiring admission to hospital for pneumonia, ARDS
or flu like illness
where an outbreak has occurred in a residential or care setting, for
example long-term care facility or prisons"
If they are prioritising those people, and if they are doing the same
number of tests (they may not be), you'd expect the numbers infected to
go UP not down.
I wouldn't. It just means they have no data for the number infected.

If 'those people' includes people with chronic respiratory problems, they
already know they are in an at risk group and many of them probably
routinely take extra precautions anyway.

Testing people already in hospital or already isolated helps decide where
to put them and what level of protection the staff need to take while
caring for them.
--
Penny
Annoyed by The Archers since 1959
BrritSki
2020-03-17 11:13:34 UTC
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Post by Penny
scrawled in the dust...
Post by BrritSki
Post by BrritSki
If they are prioritising those people, and if they are doing the same
number of tests (they may not be), you'd expect the numbers infected to
go UP not down.
I wouldn't. It just means they have no data for the number infected.
I they are doing (say) 1,000 tests a day and switch from doing the tests
on the wider population to just those who are in hospital and hence by
definition sicker, you would expect to get MORE positive results not
fewer for the purposes of that graph.

I agree that the real number infected is a known unknown.
Penny
2020-03-17 12:21:05 UTC
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On Tue, 17 Mar 2020 11:13:34 +0000, BrritSki <***@gmail.com>
scrawled in the dust...
Post by BrritSki
Post by Penny
scrawled in the dust...
Post by BrritSki
Post by BrritSki
If they are prioritising those people, and if they are doing the same
number of tests (they may not be), you'd expect the numbers infected to
go UP not down.
I wouldn't. It just means they have no data for the number infected.
I they are doing (say) 1,000 tests a day and switch from doing the tests
on the wider population to just those who are in hospital and hence by
definition sicker, you would expect to get MORE positive results not
fewer for the purposes of that graph.
I agree that the real number infected is a known unknown.
While we have heard of no deaths in the self-isolating community it does
not mean they have not happened. Some of those, not in the priority groups
so left to cope in their own homes, are very sick. Maybe the paramedic
crews who visit but don't go in, should be issued with big red stickers to
put on the doors.
--
Penny
Annoyed by The Archers since 1959
John Ashby
2020-03-17 12:27:51 UTC
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Permalink
Post by Penny
scrawled in the dust...
Post by BrritSki
Post by Penny
scrawled in the dust...
Post by BrritSki
Post by BrritSki
If they are prioritising those people, and if they are doing the same
number of tests (they may not be), you'd expect the numbers infected to
go UP not down.
I wouldn't. It just means they have no data for the number infected.
I they are doing (say) 1,000 tests a day and switch from doing the tests
on the wider population to just those who are in hospital and hence by
definition sicker, you would expect to get MORE positive results not
fewer for the purposes of that graph.
I agree that the real number infected is a known unknown.
While we have heard of no deaths in the self-isolating community it does
not mean they have not happened. Some of those, not in the priority groups
so left to cope in their own homes, are very sick. Maybe the paramedic
crews who visit but don't go in, should be issued with big red stickers to
put on the doors.
Or hand-carts and -bells.

[Put me down I'm not dead yet]

john
Nick Odell
2020-03-17 19:00:53 UTC
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Post by John Ashby
Post by Penny
scrawled in the dust...
Post by BrritSki
Post by Penny
scrawled in the dust...
Post by BrritSki
Post by BrritSki
If they are prioritising those people, and if they are doing the same
number of tests (they may not be), you'd expect the numbers infected to
go UP not down.
I wouldn't. It just means they have no data for the number infected.
I they are doing (say) 1,000 tests a day and switch from doing the tests
on the wider population to just those who are in hospital and hence by
definition sicker, you would expect to get MORE positive results not
fewer for the purposes of that graph.
I agree that the real number infected is a known unknown.
While we have heard of no deaths in the self-isolating community it does
not mean they have not happened. Some of those, not in the priority groups
so left to cope in their own homes, are very sick. Maybe the paramedic
crews who visit but don't go in, should be issued with big red stickers to
put on the doors.
Or hand-carts and -bells.
[Put me down I'm not dead yet]
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/picture/2020/mar/06/martin-rowson-coronavirus-covid-19-self-isolation-cartoon

N.
J. P. Gilliver (John)
2020-03-17 21:47:51 UTC
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[]
Post by John Ashby
Post by Penny
While we have heard of no deaths in the self-isolating community it does
not mean they have not happened. Some of those, not in the priority groups
so left to cope in their own homes, are very sick. Maybe the paramedic
crews who visit but don't go in, should be issued with big red stickers to
put on the doors.
Or big paintbrushes and pots of (was it black?) paint to paint the
crosses ...
Post by John Ashby
Or hand-carts and -bells.
[Put me down I'm not dead yet]
john
Occupation: tumbril-driver ...
--
J. P. Gilliver. UMRA: 1960/<1985 MB++G()AL-IS-Ch++(p)***@T+H+Sh0!:`)DNAf

I want to know who would mow Wales if we lost all the sheep. - Penny in
uk.media.radio.archers (in an environmental/ecological thread), 2020-1-1
steve hague
2020-03-19 09:43:31 UTC
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Post by Penny
scrawled in the dust...
Post by BrritSki
Post by Penny
scrawled in the dust...
Post by BrritSki
Post by BrritSki
If they are prioritising those people, and if they are doing the same
number of tests (they may not be), you'd expect the numbers infected to
go UP not down.
I wouldn't. It just means they have no data for the number infected.
I they are doing (say) 1,000 tests a day and switch from doing the tests
on the wider population to just those who are in hospital and hence by
definition sicker, you would expect to get MORE positive results not
fewer for the purposes of that graph.
I agree that the real number infected is a known unknown.
While we have heard of no deaths in the self-isolating community it does
not mean they have not happened. Some of those, not in the priority groups
so left to cope in their own homes, are very sick. Maybe the paramedic
crews who visit but don't go in, should be issued with big red stickers to
put on the doors.
Self- isolating community? How does that work then?😁
Steve
Penny
2020-03-19 10:58:37 UTC
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Permalink
On Thu, 19 Mar 2020 09:43:31 +0000, steve hague <***@gmail.com>
scrawled in the dust...
Self- isolating community? How does that work then??
Have you not seen the videos from Italy and Spain with city folk singing
together from their individual balconies? My favourite is the guy
projecting Fred Astaire and Ginger Rogers dancing cheek to cheek on the
building across the courtyard when a couple in the room bottom left of the
shot get up and start to dance together.
--
Penny
Annoyed by The Archers since 1959
Jane Vernon
2020-03-19 13:51:55 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by steve hague
Post by Penny
scrawled in the dust...
Post by BrritSki
Post by Penny
On Tue, 17 Mar 2020 09:37:01 +0000, BrritSki
scrawled in the dust...
Post by BrritSki
Post by BrritSki
If they are prioritising those people, and if they are doing the same
number of tests (they may not be), you'd expect the numbers infected to
go UP not down.
I wouldn't. It just means they have no data for the number infected.
I they are doing (say) 1,000 tests a day and switch from doing the tests
on the wider population to just those who are in hospital and hence by
definition sicker, you would expect to get MORE positive results not
fewer for the purposes of that graph.
I agree that the real number infected is a known unknown.
While we have heard of no deaths in the self-isolating community it does
not mean they have not happened. Some of those, not in the priority groups
so left to cope in their own homes, are very sick. Maybe the paramedic
crews who visit but don't go in, should be issued with big red stickers to
put on the doors.
Self- isolating community? How does that work then?😁
Steve
In Stroud, and I expect elsewhere, it works with a website with links to
websites in voting wards and WhatsApp groups for small areas, including
some individual streets. People are concerned for neighbours they
haven't seen and are printing leaflets offering help which they are
putting through doors. Help like delivering food to doorsteps.
--
Jane
The Potter in the Purple socks - to reply, please remove PURPLE
BTME

http://www.clothandclay.co.uk/umra/cookbook.htm - Umrats' recipes
Sam Plusnet
2020-03-19 21:52:51 UTC
Reply
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Post by Jane Vernon
Post by steve hague
Post by Penny
On Tue, 17 Mar 2020 11:13:34 +0000, BrritSki
scrawled in the dust...
Post by BrritSki
Post by Penny
On Tue, 17 Mar 2020 09:37:01 +0000, BrritSki
scrawled in the dust...
Post by BrritSki
Post by BrritSki
If they are prioritising those people, and if they are doing the same
number of tests (they may not be), you'd expect the numbers infected to
go UP not down.
I wouldn't. It just means they have no data for the number infected.
I they are doing (say) 1,000 tests a day and switch from doing the tests
on the wider population to just those who are in hospital and hence by
definition sicker, you would expect to get MORE positive results not
fewer for the purposes of that graph.
I agree that the real number infected is a known unknown.
While we have heard of no deaths in the self-isolating community it does
not mean they have not happened. Some of those, not in the priority groups
so left to cope in their own homes, are very sick. Maybe the paramedic
crews who visit but don't go in, should be issued with big red stickers to
put on the doors.
Self- isolating community? How does that work then?😁
Steve
In Stroud, and I expect elsewhere, it works with a website with links to
websites in voting wards and WhatsApp groups for small areas, including
some individual streets.  People are concerned for neighbours they
haven't seen and are printing leaflets offering help which they are
putting through doors.  Help like delivering food to doorsteps.
Followed very rapidly by warnings from our Local Authority about the
_possibility_ of ne'er-do-wells offering to do shopping & collect
pensions etc. & then making off this the dosh/credit cards.
--
Sam Plusnet
Nick Odell
2020-03-19 21:58:31 UTC
Reply
Permalink
On Thu, 19 Mar 2020 09:43:31 +0000, steve hague
Post by Penny
scrawled in the dust...
Post by BrritSki
Post by Penny
scrawled in the dust...
Post by BrritSki
Post by BrritSki
If they are prioritising those people, and if they are doing the same
number of tests (they may not be), you'd expect the numbers infected to
go UP not down.
I wouldn't. It just means they have no data for the number infected.
I they are doing (say) 1,000 tests a day and switch from doing the tests
on the wider population to just those who are in hospital and hence by
definition sicker, you would expect to get MORE positive results not
fewer for the purposes of that graph.
I agree that the real number infected is a known unknown.
While we have heard of no deaths in the self-isolating community it does
not mean they have not happened. Some of those, not in the priority groups
so left to cope in their own homes, are very sick. Maybe the paramedic
crews who visit but don't go in, should be issued with big red stickers to
put on the doors.
Self- isolating community? How does that work then??
In Huddersfield and elsewhere (I read) that clubs have been holding
lock-in members-only parties. Dangerous and irresponsible is how the
authorities have described them. Another reason why the British
government´s ambivalence hasn´t been helpful, IMO.

Nick
Penny
2020-03-17 10:44:40 UTC
Reply
Permalink
On Tue, 17 Mar 2020 09:32:47 +0000, BrritSki <***@gmail.com>
scrawled in the dust...
Post by BrritSki
Post by Penny
scrawled in the dust...
Post by BrritSki
This is encouraging, but we need to see this trend continue for days if
not weeks.
<https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/>
I'm not sure how you can draw any conclusions from that. AIUI they stopped
testing people around 14th.
Not my understanding at all. They are certainly not doing enough
testing, and it may be limited to hospitals, but I can't find any data
on number of tests done by day to draw any conclusions about trends.
My comment largely based upon the GP who phoned Any Answers who was
self-isolating and unable to get anyone to test him which would plainly be
useful if he tested positive but did not get very ill. Also that twitter
thread Jim posted from the chap whose 30 year old wife was suffering what
was presumably Covid-19 so he was documenting what it was like at the sharp
end of coping at home. The paramedic crew said they'd been told to stop
testing that morning.
--
Penny
Annoyed by The Archers since 1959
Chris McMillan
2020-03-18 14:36:02 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by BrritSki
Post by Penny
scrawled in the dust...
Post by BrritSki
This is encouraging, but we need to see this trend continue for days if
not weeks.
<https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/>
I'm not sure how you can draw any conclusions from that. AIUI they stopped
testing people around 14th.
Not my understanding at all. They are certainly not doing enough
testing, and it may be limited to hospitals, but I can't find any data
on number of tests done by day to draw any conclusions about trends.
In China testing is relentless. Temperature taken five times a day. Masks
worn at all times outdoors. Copious use of hand sanitisers. There is more:
I’ve an ex pat and his Chinese wife friends in Beijing on very tight reins.
They’re looking after her very elderly mum: in her 90s.

In fact now we have 12 week lockdown that puts a lot of things planned with
international links firmly into 2021.

Sincerely Chris
Flop
2020-03-17 09:54:28 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Penny
scrawled in the dust...
Post by BrritSki
This is encouraging, but we need to see this trend continue for days if
not weeks.
<https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/>
I'm not sure how you can draw any conclusions from that. AIUI they stopped
testing people around 14th.
There are three possible reasons for new cases to have started dropping
from a peak:

a) see above
b) self-isolating is kicking in and the virus cannot go from one person
to another
c) the virus has a limited lifetime (number of reproductions before
mutation to a less harmful species)

China is rarely mentioned in the news now. But it has dropped from 4000
new cases per day (Feb 4) to 143 (last reported on March 4) and deaths
per day peak of 150 (Feb 12) to 13 (March 16).

Some curves are very smooth indicating that they may be fairly accurate.
Others more random.

In all cases, the number infected has been a very small proportion of
the total population (China 60 cases per million; Spain 460 per million*)

*The worst case but still only one per 2000.

I suspect the correlations are very complex and I do not have the skills
anyway but it would be interesting to see how the various timescales for
'start' to 'peak', 'peak' to 'end' and 'peak(cases/per day)' to
'peak(deaths)' compare.
--
Flop

Truly the Good Lord gave us computers that we might learn patience
John Ashby
2020-03-17 10:33:43 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by BrritSki
This is encouraging, but we need to see this trend continue for days if
not weeks.
<https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/>
Makes one wonder if the initial strategy was the correct one as the new
one that so many were clamouring for [1] has not had time to have an
impact. Of course it could be that people were already implementing the
new strategy themselves and that is what made the difference.
[1] often the same people who are complaining that pubs clubs etc should
have been officially closed so that they could make insurance claims. Do
they understand how insurance works ?  Lots of people pay in so that if
a few suffer a calamity it can pay out, but if 100% suffer the calamity
the money is going to run out pretty soon, and they'll get back on
average less than their annual contribution.
This explains who's been panic buying toilet paper - Lloyds underwiters
must be shitting themselves.

john
Kate B
2020-03-17 17:00:26 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by BrritSki
This is encouraging, but we need to see this trend continue for days if
not weeks.
<https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/>
Makes one wonder if the initial strategy was the correct one as the new
one that so many were clamouring for [1] has not had time to have an
impact. Of course it could be that people were already implementing the
new strategy themselves and that is what made the difference.
[1] often the same people who are complaining that pubs clubs etc should
have been officially closed so that they could make insurance claims. Do
they understand how insurance works ?  Lots of people pay in so that if
a few suffer a calamity it can pay out, but if 100% suffer the calamity
the money is going to run out pretty soon, and they'll get back on
average less than their annual contribution.
Some theatres (which will really suffer, together with all the freelance
and casual workers who make them what they are) apparently have a 'force
majeure' clause in their insurances which would indeed pay something if
there was a Government closure.
--
Kate B
London
krw
2020-03-17 22:08:08 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Kate B
Post by BrritSki
This is encouraging, but we need to see this trend continue for days
if not weeks.
<https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/>
Makes one wonder if the initial strategy was the correct one as the
new one that so many were clamouring for [1] has not had time to have
an impact. Of course it could be that people were already implementing
the new strategy themselves and that is what made the difference.
[1] often the same people who are complaining that pubs clubs etc
should have been officially closed so that they could make insurance
claims. Do they understand how insurance works ?  Lots of people pay
in so that if a few suffer a calamity it can pay out, but if 100%
suffer the calamity the money is going to run out pretty soon, and
they'll get back on average less than their annual contribution.
Some theatres (which will really suffer, together with all the freelance
and casual workers who make them what they are) apparently have a 'force
majeure' clause in their insurances which would indeed pay something if
there was a Government closure.
And I have numerous bookings with ATG which are at best giving vouchers
- some of the bookings are for group outings and I have absolutely no
chance of getting the same group to book again for another production on
some unknown future date. ATG are not being pro-active and are
expecting their customers to lodge claims - which as they have decided
to close really takes the biscuit - they decided to close, so they
should be making contact and full repayment not some b***** stupid
voucher I cannot use. ATG management need to be taken out and subjected
to the virus or put brains into gear. They decided so they should be
putting it straight not relying on their customers.
--
Kosmo Richard W
www.travelswmw.whitnet.uk
https://tinyurl.com/KRWpics
Kate B
2020-03-17 23:14:49 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by krw
Post by Kate B
Post by BrritSki
This is encouraging, but we need to see this trend continue for days
if not weeks.
<https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/>
Makes one wonder if the initial strategy was the correct one as the
new one that so many were clamouring for [1] has not had time to have
an impact. Of course it could be that people were already
implementing the new strategy themselves and that is what made the
difference.
[1] often the same people who are complaining that pubs clubs etc
should have been officially closed so that they could make insurance
claims. Do they understand how insurance works ?  Lots of people pay
in so that if a few suffer a calamity it can pay out, but if 100%
suffer the calamity the money is going to run out pretty soon, and
they'll get back on average less than their annual contribution.
Some theatres (which will really suffer, together with all the
freelance and casual workers who make them what they are) apparently
have a 'force majeure' clause in their insurances which would indeed
pay something if there was a Government closure.
And I have numerous bookings with ATG which are at best giving vouchers
- some of the bookings are for group outings and I have absolutely no
chance of getting the same group to book again for another production on
some unknown future date.  ATG are not being pro-active and are
expecting their customers to lodge claims - which as they have decided
to close really takes the biscuit - they decided to close, so they
should be making contact and full repayment not some b***** stupid
voucher I cannot use.  ATG management need to be taken out and subjected
to the virus or put brains into gear.  They decided so they should be
putting it straight not relying on their customers.
They decided to shut the theatres because firstly people are cancelling,
and secondly the government and indeed the general public and the media
are putting moral pressure on them to close. Not to mention the people
who work in the theatres who are worried about their own health or who
have vulnerable dependents.

So what do you want them to do? Give back everyone's money just like
that? Then the companies are highly likely to go bust and the theatres
crumble. No shows at all.

ATG are no angels, but the situation is dire. They are appealing to the
public to support them. This link leads to articles in The Stage -
there's one about ATG halfway down, but just cast an eye on the rest to
get some idea of the catastrophe.

https://www.thestage.co.uk/features/promoted/2020/coronavirus-breaking-news-and-live-updates-as-the-theatre-industry-responds/
--
Kate B
London
krw
2020-03-18 00:01:59 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Kate B
Post by krw
Post by Kate B
Post by BrritSki
This is encouraging, but we need to see this trend continue for days
if not weeks.
<https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/>
Makes one wonder if the initial strategy was the correct one as the
new one that so many were clamouring for [1] has not had time to
have an impact. Of course it could be that people were already
implementing the new strategy themselves and that is what made the
difference.
[1] often the same people who are complaining that pubs clubs etc
should have been officially closed so that they could make insurance
claims. Do they understand how insurance works ?  Lots of people pay
in so that if a few suffer a calamity it can pay out, but if 100%
suffer the calamity the money is going to run out pretty soon, and
they'll get back on average less than their annual contribution.
Some theatres (which will really suffer, together with all the
freelance and casual workers who make them what they are) apparently
have a 'force majeure' clause in their insurances which would indeed
pay something if there was a Government closure.
And I have numerous bookings with ATG which are at best giving
vouchers - some of the bookings are for group outings and I have
absolutely no chance of getting the same group to book again for
another production on some unknown future date.  ATG are not being
pro-active and are expecting their customers to lodge claims - which
as they have decided to close really takes the biscuit - they decided
to close, so they should be making contact and full repayment not some
b***** stupid voucher I cannot use.  ATG management need to be taken
out and subjected to the virus or put brains into gear.  They decided
so they should be putting it straight not relying on their customers.
They decided to shut the theatres because firstly people are cancelling,
and secondly the government and indeed the general public and the media
are putting moral pressure on them to close. Not to mention the people
who work in the theatres who are worried about their own health or who
have vulnerable dependents.
So what do you want them to do? Give back everyone's money just like
that? Then the companies are highly likely to go bust and the theatres
crumble. No shows at all.
ATG are no angels, but the situation is dire. They are appealing to the
public to support them. This link leads to articles in The Stage -
there's one about ATG halfway down, but just cast an eye on the rest to
get some idea of the catastrophe.
https://www.thestage.co.uk/features/promoted/2020/coronavirus-breaking-news-and-live-updates-as-the-theatre-industry-responds/
I expect them to contact me - for bookings for wife and myself I am
entirely happy to take vouchers. Where I have a goup booking for about
12 people whom I will have to refund I need cash. But they cancelled -
they should be contacting me and telling me what is possible NOT telling
me to fill in a claim form. I did not cancel - they did, the onus is on
them. Very poor from a very major theatre group. I expect the person
who withdrew their services to contact me - they have my email - what is
stopping them being grown ups? Sorry - they need not to be asking me to
fill in forms when it is entirely their decision. I amd my friends were
happy enough to go the performance - we did not change our minds because
a jumped up comedian suggested that it might not be a good idea when
frankly said comedian does not know if it is a good idea or not.
--
Kosmo Richard W
www.travelswmw.whitnet.uk
https://tinyurl.com/KRWpics
BrritSki
2020-03-18 08:15:59 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by krw
Post by Kate B
Post by krw
Post by Kate B
Post by BrritSki
This is encouraging, but we need to see this trend continue for
days if not weeks.
<https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/>
Makes one wonder if the initial strategy was the correct one as the
new one that so many were clamouring for [1] has not had time to
have an impact. Of course it could be that people were already
implementing the new strategy themselves and that is what made the
difference.
[1] often the same people who are complaining that pubs clubs etc
should have been officially closed so that they could make
insurance claims. Do they understand how insurance works ?  Lots of
people pay in so that if a few suffer a calamity it can pay out,
but if 100% suffer the calamity the money is going to run out
pretty soon, and they'll get back on average less than their annual
contribution.
Some theatres (which will really suffer, together with all the
freelance and casual workers who make them what they are) apparently
have a 'force majeure' clause in their insurances which would indeed
pay something if there was a Government closure.
And I have numerous bookings with ATG which are at best giving
vouchers - some of the bookings are for group outings and I have
absolutely no chance of getting the same group to book again for
another production on some unknown future date.  ATG are not being
pro-active and are expecting their customers to lodge claims - which
as they have decided to close really takes the biscuit - they decided
to close, so they should be making contact and full repayment not
some b***** stupid voucher I cannot use.  ATG management need to be
taken out and subjected to the virus or put brains into gear.  They
decided so they should be putting it straight not relying on their
customers.
They decided to shut the theatres because firstly people are
cancelling, and secondly the government and indeed the general public
and the media are putting moral pressure on them to close. Not to
mention the people who work in the theatres who are worried about
their own health or who have vulnerable dependents.
So what do you want them to do? Give back everyone's money just like
that? Then the companies are highly likely to go bust and the theatres
crumble. No shows at all.
ATG are no angels, but the situation is dire. They are appealing to
the public to support them. This link leads to articles in The Stage -
there's one about ATG halfway down, but just cast an eye on the rest
to get some idea of the catastrophe.
https://www.thestage.co.uk/features/promoted/2020/coronavirus-breaking-news-and-live-updates-as-the-theatre-industry-responds/
I expect them to contact me - for bookings for wife and myself I am
entirely happy to take vouchers.  Where I have a goup booking for about
12 people whom I will have to refund I need cash.  But they cancelled -
they should be contacting me and telling me what is possible NOT telling
me to fill in a claim form.  I did not cancel - they did, the onus is on
them.  Very poor from a very major theatre group.  I expect the person
who withdrew their services to contact me - they have my email - what is
stopping them being grown ups?  Sorry - they need not to be asking me to
fill in forms when it is entirely their decision.  I amd my friends were
happy enough to go the performance - we did not change our minds because
a jumped up comedian suggested that it might not be a good idea when
frankly said comedian does not know if it is a good idea or not.
I think you are being unreasonable and have no concept of the scale of
the problem from ATG's perspective.
Sally Thompson
2020-03-18 09:37:23 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by BrritSki
Post by krw
Post by Kate B
Post by krw
Post by Kate B
Post by BrritSki
This is encouraging, but we need to see this trend continue for
days if not weeks.
<https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/>
Makes one wonder if the initial strategy was the correct one as the
new one that so many were clamouring for [1] has not had time to
have an impact. Of course it could be that people were already
implementing the new strategy themselves and that is what made the
difference.
[1] often the same people who are complaining that pubs clubs etc
should have been officially closed so that they could make
insurance claims. Do they understand how insurance works ?  Lots of
people pay in so that if a few suffer a calamity it can pay out,
but if 100% suffer the calamity the money is going to run out
pretty soon, and they'll get back on average less than their annual
contribution.
Some theatres (which will really suffer, together with all the
freelance and casual workers who make them what they are) apparently
have a 'force majeure' clause in their insurances which would indeed
pay something if there was a Government closure.
And I have numerous bookings with ATG which are at best giving
vouchers - some of the bookings are for group outings and I have
absolutely no chance of getting the same group to book again for
another production on some unknown future date.  ATG are not being
pro-active and are expecting their customers to lodge claims - which
as they have decided to close really takes the biscuit - they decided
to close, so they should be making contact and full repayment not
some b***** stupid voucher I cannot use.  ATG management need to be
taken out and subjected to the virus or put brains into gear.  They
decided so they should be putting it straight not relying on their
customers.
They decided to shut the theatres because firstly people are
cancelling, and secondly the government and indeed the general public
and the media are putting moral pressure on them to close. Not to
mention the people who work in the theatres who are worried about
their own health or who have vulnerable dependents.
So what do you want them to do? Give back everyone's money just like
that? Then the companies are highly likely to go bust and the theatres
crumble. No shows at all.
ATG are no angels, but the situation is dire. They are appealing to
the public to support them. This link leads to articles in The Stage -
there's one about ATG halfway down, but just cast an eye on the rest
to get some idea of the catastrophe.
https://www.thestage.co.uk/features/promoted/2020/coronavirus-breaking-news-and-live-updates-as-the-theatre-industry-responds/
I expect them to contact me - for bookings for wife and myself I am
entirely happy to take vouchers.  Where I have a goup booking for about
12 people whom I will have to refund I need cash.  But they cancelled -
they should be contacting me and telling me what is possible NOT telling
me to fill in a claim form.  I did not cancel - they did, the onus is on
them.  Very poor from a very major theatre group.  I expect the person
who withdrew their services to contact me - they have my email - what is
stopping them being grown ups?  Sorry - they need not to be asking me to
fill in forms when it is entirely their decision.  I amd my friends were
happy enough to go the performance - we did not change our minds because
a jumped up comedian suggested that it might not be a good idea when
frankly said comedian does not know if it is a good idea or not.
I think you are being unreasonable and have no concept of the scale of
the problem from ATG's perspective.
+1. You got there just before me.

We had a very special trip planned for Covent Garden in May. Although it's
two months away I imagine it won't go ahead but in the scheme of things
that's the least of our problems.

It really is the time for us all to think of others and not ourselves.
--
Sally in Shropshire, UK
BrritSki
2020-03-18 09:49:49 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Sally Thompson
Post by BrritSki
Post by krw
Post by Kate B
Post by krw
Post by Kate B
Post by BrritSki
This is encouraging, but we need to see this trend continue for
days if not weeks.
<https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/>
Makes one wonder if the initial strategy was the correct one as the
new one that so many were clamouring for [1] has not had time to
have an impact. Of course it could be that people were already
implementing the new strategy themselves and that is what made the
difference.
[1] often the same people who are complaining that pubs clubs etc
should have been officially closed so that they could make
insurance claims. Do they understand how insurance works ?  Lots of
people pay in so that if a few suffer a calamity it can pay out,
but if 100% suffer the calamity the money is going to run out
pretty soon, and they'll get back on average less than their annual
contribution.
Some theatres (which will really suffer, together with all the
freelance and casual workers who make them what they are) apparently
have a 'force majeure' clause in their insurances which would indeed
pay something if there was a Government closure.
And I have numerous bookings with ATG which are at best giving
vouchers - some of the bookings are for group outings and I have
absolutely no chance of getting the same group to book again for
another production on some unknown future date.  ATG are not being
pro-active and are expecting their customers to lodge claims - which
as they have decided to close really takes the biscuit - they decided
to close, so they should be making contact and full repayment not
some b***** stupid voucher I cannot use.  ATG management need to be
taken out and subjected to the virus or put brains into gear.  They
decided so they should be putting it straight not relying on their
customers.
They decided to shut the theatres because firstly people are
cancelling, and secondly the government and indeed the general public
and the media are putting moral pressure on them to close. Not to
mention the people who work in the theatres who are worried about
their own health or who have vulnerable dependents.
So what do you want them to do? Give back everyone's money just like
that? Then the companies are highly likely to go bust and the theatres
crumble. No shows at all.
ATG are no angels, but the situation is dire. They are appealing to
the public to support them. This link leads to articles in The Stage -
there's one about ATG halfway down, but just cast an eye on the rest
to get some idea of the catastrophe.
https://www.thestage.co.uk/features/promoted/2020/coronavirus-breaking-news-and-live-updates-as-the-theatre-industry-responds/
I expect them to contact me - for bookings for wife and myself I am
entirely happy to take vouchers.  Where I have a goup booking for about
12 people whom I will have to refund I need cash.  But they cancelled -
they should be contacting me and telling me what is possible NOT telling
me to fill in a claim form.  I did not cancel - they did, the onus is on
them.  Very poor from a very major theatre group.  I expect the person
who withdrew their services to contact me - they have my email - what is
stopping them being grown ups?  Sorry - they need not to be asking me to
fill in forms when it is entirely their decision.  I amd my friends were
happy enough to go the performance - we did not change our minds because
a jumped up comedian suggested that it might not be a good idea when
frankly said comedian does not know if it is a good idea or not.
I think you are being unreasonable and have no concept of the scale of
the problem from ATG's perspective.
+1. You got there just before me.
We had a very special trip planned for Covent Garden in May. Although it's
two months away I imagine it won't go ahead but in the scheme of things
that's the least of our problems.
It really is the time for us all to think of others and not ourselves.
Quite. I think we should praise the likes of Easyjet (allowing ALL
bookings to be changed FOC, as well as refunds or FOC changes to those
that have actually been cancelled, with emails about everything) and
AirBnB (allowing cancellations of long-standing bookings for stays in
the next month) are to be praised for being proactive, rather than
moaning about companies who aren't so good.
BrritSki
2020-03-18 10:25:41 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by BrritSki
Quite. I think we should praise the likes of Easyjet (allowing ALL
bookings to be changed FOC, as well as refunds or FOC changes to those
that have actually been cancelled, with emails about everything) and
AirBnB (allowing cancellations of long-standing bookings for stays in
the next month) are to be praised for being proactive, rather than
moaning about companies who aren't so good.
Email from Easyjet this morning:

Due to the unprecedented circumstances, we’re launching our winter
schedule early so that if you have an existing booking you can change to
a flight for travel up until February 2021.

We’ve waived our change fees until further notice, so you can currently
amend the date and/or destination of your existing flight booking for
free. The quickest and easiest way to do this is via Manage Bookings on
our website.
krw
2020-03-18 10:39:00 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by BrritSki
Post by BrritSki
Quite. I think we should praise the likes of Easyjet (allowing ALL
bookings to be changed FOC, as well as refunds or FOC changes to those
that have actually been cancelled, with emails about everything) and
AirBnB (allowing cancellations of long-standing bookings for stays in
the next month) are to be praised for being proactive, rather than
moaning about companies who aren't so good.
Due to the unprecedented circumstances, we’re launching our winter
schedule early so that if you have an existing booking you can change to
a flight for travel up until February 2021.
We’ve waived our change fees until further notice, so you can currently
amend the date and/or destination of your existing flight booking for
free. The quickest and easiest way to do this is via Manage Bookings on
our website.
So the supplier is being the active party - exactly how I would expect
ATG to behave.
--
Kosmo Richard W
www.travelswmw.whitnet.uk
https://tinyurl.com/KRWpics
BrritSki
2020-03-18 10:43:50 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by krw
Post by BrritSki
Post by BrritSki
Quite. I think we should praise the likes of Easyjet (allowing ALL
bookings to be changed FOC, as well as refunds or FOC changes to
those that have actually been cancelled, with emails about
everything) and AirBnB (allowing cancellations of long-standing
bookings for stays in the next month) are to be praised for being
proactive, rather than moaning about companies who aren't so good.
Due to the unprecedented circumstances, we’re launching our winter
schedule early so that if you have an existing booking you can change
to a flight for travel up until February 2021.
We’ve waived our change fees until further notice, so you can
currently amend the date and/or destination of your existing flight
booking for free. The quickest and easiest way to do this is via
Manage Bookings on our website.
So the supplier is being the active party - exactly how I would expect
ATG to behave.
Website looks pretty clear to me and exactly what EasyJet did initially
(I eventually got a personal email about my cancelled flight, but I'd
already switched it to a new flight by then):

Information and Advice about the Coronavirus


UPDATE - 17 March 2020, 07:45

In response to the Prime Minister’s statement yesterday evening,
advising the UK public to avoid unnecessary social contact, including in
theatres, we regret to inform you that shows in all Ambassador Theatre
Group UK venues are temporarily suspended with immediate effect.

We understand that this decision comes as a disappointment, and a
massive inconvenience for those of you already on the way to a venue
this evening, but ultimately we all want the same thing: the health and
safety of our communities, and we believe this is the correct decision
to make.

Given the current ambiguity and lack of clarity as to how long our
theatres may be closed for, we hope to provide you with an update within
the next 48 hours regarding the exchange of tickets. We will be
consulting with industry bodies including the Society of London Theatre
and UK Theatre and the government over the immediate future.

For now, we would like to thank you for your understanding and patience,
and to recognise the incredible efforts and support of producers,
artists, partners and customers over this difficult period.

Mark Cornell

Group CEO, Ambassador Theatre Group

Please click here for our enquiry form


Frequently Asked Questions
Posted: 17 March 2020, 18:45


My performance has been cancelled; how can I exchange?
All bookings for cancelled performances will be fully credited or
exchanged to a future show of your choice via a voucher, redeemable on
ATGtickets.com.

For complete peace of mind, you will be able to exchange again free of
charge in the event that further performances are postponed.

To request a full credit voucher for the performance you were unable to
attend, please complete request form.

I booked with a group of people and we need to re-book at different times
All bookings for cancelled performances will be fully credited or
exchanged to a future show of your choice via a voucher, redeemable on
the ATGtickets website.

If you booked as a group, please get in touch with the person that made
the booking and ask them to complete the request form.

I took out Ticket Protection but the policy doesn’t cover Covid-19?
Secure My Booking's ticket reimbursement program unfortunately does not
cover for epidemic or pandemic.

However, all bookings for cancelled performances will be fully credited
or exchanged by ATG to a future performance of your choice via a
voucher, redeemable on the ATGtickets website.

To request a full credit voucher for the performance you were unable to
attend, please complete the request form.

What happens if I rebook and the venue closes again?
For complete peace of mind, you will be able to exchange again free of
charge in the event that further performances are postponed.
Serena Blanchflower
2020-03-18 10:32:35 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by BrritSki
Post by Sally Thompson
Post by BrritSki
Post by krw
Post by Kate B
Post by krw
Post by Kate B
Post by BrritSki
This is encouraging, but we need to see this trend continue for
days if not weeks.
<https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/>
Makes one wonder if the initial strategy was the correct one as the
new one that so many were clamouring for [1] has not had time to
have an impact. Of course it could be that people were already
implementing the new strategy themselves and that is what made the
difference.
[1] often the same people who are complaining that pubs clubs etc
should have been officially closed so that they could make
insurance claims. Do they understand how insurance works ?  Lots of
people pay in so that if a few suffer a calamity it can pay out,
but if 100% suffer the calamity the money is going to run out
pretty soon, and they'll get back on average less than their annual
contribution.
Some theatres (which will really suffer, together with all the
freelance and casual workers who make them what they are) apparently
have a 'force majeure' clause in their insurances which would indeed
pay something if there was a Government closure.
And I have numerous bookings with ATG which are at best giving
vouchers - some of the bookings are for group outings and I have
absolutely no chance of getting the same group to book again for
another production on some unknown future date.  ATG are not being
pro-active and are expecting their customers to lodge claims - which
as they have decided to close really takes the biscuit - they decided
to close, so they should be making contact and full repayment not
some b***** stupid voucher I cannot use.  ATG management need to be
taken out and subjected to the virus or put brains into gear.  They
decided so they should be putting it straight not relying on their
customers.
They decided to shut the theatres because firstly people are
cancelling, and secondly the government and indeed the general public
and the media are putting moral pressure on them to close. Not to
mention the people who work in the theatres who are worried about
their own health or who have vulnerable dependents.
So what do you want them to do? Give back everyone's money just like
that? Then the companies are highly likely to go bust and the theatres
crumble. No shows at all.
ATG are no angels, but the situation is dire. They are appealing to
the public to support them. This link leads to articles in The Stage -
there's one about ATG halfway down, but just cast an eye on the rest
to get some idea of the catastrophe.
https://www.thestage.co.uk/features/promoted/2020/coronavirus-breaking-news-and-live-updates-as-the-theatre-industry-responds/
I expect them to contact me - for bookings for wife and myself I am
entirely happy to take vouchers.  Where I have a goup booking for about
12 people whom I will have to refund I need cash.  But they cancelled -
they should be contacting me and telling me what is possible NOT telling
me to fill in a claim form.  I did not cancel - they did, the onus is on
them.  Very poor from a very major theatre group.  I expect the person
who withdrew their services to contact me - they have my email - what is
stopping them being grown ups?  Sorry - they need not to be asking me to
fill in forms when it is entirely their decision.  I amd my friends were
happy enough to go the performance - we did not change our minds because
a jumped up comedian suggested that it might not be a good idea when
frankly said comedian does not know if it is a good idea or not.
I think you are being unreasonable and have no concept of the scale of
the problem from ATG's perspective.
+1. You got there just before me.
We had a very special trip planned for Covent Garden in May. Although it's
two months away I imagine it won't go ahead but in the scheme of things
that's the least of our problems.
It really is the time for us all to think of others and not ourselves.
Quite. I think we should praise the likes of Easyjet (allowing ALL
bookings to be changed FOC, as well as refunds or FOC changes to those
that have actually been cancelled, with emails about everything) and
AirBnB (allowing cancellations of long-standing bookings for stays in
the next month) are to be praised for being proactive, rather than
moaning about companies who aren't so good.
<languid wave>
--
Best wishes, Serena
When everything is coming your way, You're in the wrong lane!
J. P. Gilliver (John)
2020-03-18 16:18:05 UTC
Reply
Permalink
[]
Post by BrritSki
Post by Sally Thompson
It really is the time for us all to think of others and not
ourselves.
Quite. I think we should praise the likes of Easyjet (allowing ALL
[]
Post by BrritSki
the next month) are to be praised for being proactive, rather than
moaning about companies who aren't so good.
Yes, a lot of us are having to re-assess ourselves. Looking at myself,
I'm not too happy with what I see - I _am_ considering buying _slightly_
more than I would need (though not _any_ bogroll! I'm nearly ¼ through
the 4-pack I usually buy, and have no intention of buying any more).
Mainly for fear of the _enforced_ movement restrictions I anticipate
before too long (I haven't got it yet, but I can see restrictions being
forced on all, soon), but that's not really an excuse. I'm also not
happy with the (low) amount of help I'm willing to give, or that I keep
wondering about leaving the parish council.
--
J. P. Gilliver. UMRA: 1960/<1985 MB++G()AL-IS-Ch++(p)***@T+H+Sh0!:`)DNAf

it is easy to make up a lie, but it can take much more time and effort to
convincingly refute it. - Patrick Cockburn, i, 2016-9-24
BrritSki
2020-03-18 16:34:08 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by J. P. Gilliver (John)
Mainly for fear of the _enforced_ movement restrictions
That will cut down the TP use...
Post by J. P. Gilliver (John)
wondering about leaving the parish council.
No, no, no, YES.

</VicarofDibley>
Jenny M Benson
2020-03-18 16:38:04 UTC
Reply
Permalink
I _am_ considering buying _slightly_ more than I would need (though not
_any_ bogroll! I'm nearly ¼ through the 4-pack I usually buy, and have
no intention of buying any more). Mainly for fear of the _enforced_
movement restrictions I anticipate before too long
Considering it came immediately after reference to bog-roll (1), the
reference to "movement restrictions" really made me laugh!

(1) See what I did there, Jpeg?
--
Jenny M Benson
Wrexham, UK
BrritSki
2020-03-18 16:39:09 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Jenny M Benson
I _am_ considering buying _slightly_ more than I would need (though
not _any_ bogroll! I'm nearly ¼ through the 4-pack I usually buy, and
have no intention of buying any more). Mainly for fear of the
_enforced_ movement restrictions I anticipate before too long
Considering it came immediately after reference to bog-roll (1), the
reference to "movement restrictions" really made me laugh!
YANAOU
J. P. Gilliver (John)
2020-03-18 17:21:23 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by BrritSki
Post by Jenny M Benson
I _am_ considering buying _slightly_ more than I would need (though
not _any_ bogroll! I'm nearly ¼ through the 4-pack I usually buy, and
have no intention of buying any more). Mainly for fear of the
_enforced_ movement restrictions I anticipate before too long
Considering it came immediately after reference to bog-roll (1), the
reference to "movement restrictions" really made me laugh!
YANAOU
Glad to bring some happiness in these times - especially as it wasn't
intentional!
--
J. P. Gilliver. UMRA: 1960/<1985 MB++G()AL-IS-Ch++(p)***@T+H+Sh0!:`)DNAf

Don't play "stupid" with me... I'm better at it.
Sally Thompson
2020-03-18 18:14:29 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by J. P. Gilliver (John)
[]
Post by BrritSki
Post by Sally Thompson
It really is the time for us all to think of others and not
ourselves.
Quite. I think we should praise the likes of Easyjet (allowing ALL
[]
Post by BrritSki
the next month) are to be praised for being proactive, rather than
moaning about companies who aren't so good.
Yes, a lot of us are having to re-assess ourselves. Looking at myself,
I'm not too happy with what I see - I _am_ considering buying _slightly_
more than I would need (though not _any_ bogroll! I'm nearly ¼ through
the 4-pack I usually buy, and have no intention of buying any more).
Mainly for fear of the _enforced_ movement restrictions I anticipate
before too long (I haven't got it yet, but I can see restrictions being
forced on all, soon), but that's not really an excuse. I'm also not
happy with the (low) amount of help I'm willing to give, or that I keep
wondering about leaving the parish council.
I'm a little concerned about the juxtaposition of loo rolls and movement
restrictions in the same sentence.
--
Sally in Shropshire, UK
J. P. Gilliver (John)
2020-03-18 18:36:41 UTC
Reply
Permalink
On Wed, 18 Mar 2020 at 18:14:29, Sally Thompson
<***@gmail.com.invalid> wrote:
[]
Post by Sally Thompson
I'm a little concerned about the juxtaposition of loo rolls and movement
restrictions in the same sentence.
Since you're at least the third 'rat to have picked up on my
unintentional juxtaposition, I cannot resist any more the old schoolboy
joke: What's brown and sits on a piano seat?
--
J. P. Gilliver. UMRA: 1960/<1985 MB++G()AL-IS-Ch++(p)***@T+H+Sh0!:`)DNAf

"I've got this shocking pain right behind the eyes."
"Have you considered amputation?" - Vila & Avon
Mike
2020-03-18 18:54:01 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Sally Thompson
Post by J. P. Gilliver (John)
[]
Post by BrritSki
Post by Sally Thompson
It really is the time for us all to think of others and not
ourselves.
Quite. I think we should praise the likes of Easyjet (allowing ALL
[]
Post by BrritSki
the next month) are to be praised for being proactive, rather than
moaning about companies who aren't so good.
Yes, a lot of us are having to re-assess ourselves. Looking at myself,
I'm not too happy with what I see - I _am_ considering buying _slightly_
more than I would need (though not _any_ bogroll! I'm nearly ¼ through
the 4-pack I usually buy, and have no intention of buying any more).
Mainly for fear of the _enforced_ movement restrictions I anticipate
before too long (I haven't got it yet, but I can see restrictions being
forced on all, soon), but that's not really an excuse. I'm also not
happy with the (low) amount of help I'm willing to give, or that I keep
wondering about leaving the parish council.
I'm a little concerned about the juxtaposition of loo rolls and movement
restrictions in the same sentence.
Perhaps there should be a colon between them?
--
Toodle Pip
krw
2020-03-18 10:38:09 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by BrritSki
Post by krw
Post by Kate B
Post by krw
Post by Kate B
Post by BrritSki
This is encouraging, but we need to see this trend continue for
days if not weeks.
<https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/>
Makes one wonder if the initial strategy was the correct one as
the new one that so many were clamouring for [1] has not had time
to have an impact. Of course it could be that people were already
implementing the new strategy themselves and that is what made the
difference.
[1] often the same people who are complaining that pubs clubs etc
should have been officially closed so that they could make
insurance claims. Do they understand how insurance works ?  Lots
of people pay in so that if a few suffer a calamity it can pay
out, but if 100% suffer the calamity the money is going to run out
pretty soon, and they'll get back on average less than their
annual contribution.
Some theatres (which will really suffer, together with all the
freelance and casual workers who make them what they are)
apparently have a 'force majeure' clause in their insurances which
would indeed pay something if there was a Government closure.
And I have numerous bookings with ATG which are at best giving
vouchers - some of the bookings are for group outings and I have
absolutely no chance of getting the same group to book again for
another production on some unknown future date.  ATG are not being
pro-active and are expecting their customers to lodge claims - which
as they have decided to close really takes the biscuit - they
decided to close, so they should be making contact and full
repayment not some b***** stupid voucher I cannot use.  ATG
management need to be taken out and subjected to the virus or put
brains into gear.  They decided so they should be putting it
straight not relying on their customers.
They decided to shut the theatres because firstly people are
cancelling, and secondly the government and indeed the general public
and the media are putting moral pressure on them to close. Not to
mention the people who work in the theatres who are worried about
their own health or who have vulnerable dependents.
So what do you want them to do? Give back everyone's money just like
that? Then the companies are highly likely to go bust and the
theatres crumble. No shows at all.
ATG are no angels, but the situation is dire. They are appealing to
the public to support them. This link leads to articles in The Stage
- there's one about ATG halfway down, but just cast an eye on the
rest to get some idea of the catastrophe.
https://www.thestage.co.uk/features/promoted/2020/coronavirus-breaking-news-and-live-updates-as-the-theatre-industry-responds/
I expect them to contact me - for bookings for wife and myself I am
entirely happy to take vouchers.  Where I have a goup booking for
about 12 people whom I will have to refund I need cash.  But they
cancelled - they should be contacting me and telling me what is
possible NOT telling me to fill in a claim form.  I did not cancel -
they did, the onus is on them.  Very poor from a very major theatre
group.  I expect the person who withdrew their services to contact me
- they have my email - what is stopping them being grown ups?  Sorry -
they need not to be asking me to fill in forms when it is entirely
their decision.  I amd my friends were happy enough to go the
performance - we did not change our minds because a jumped up comedian
suggested that it might not be a good idea when frankly said comedian
does not know if it is a good idea or not.
I think you are being unreasonable and have no concept of the scale of
the problem from ATG's perspective.
ATG have systems, they have email addresses and the details of the
bookings - sorry but the onus is on them as they cancelled and they have
the information. Putting the onus on the customer smacks of a lack of
customer service.
--
Kosmo Richard W
www.travelswmw.whitnet.uk
https://tinyurl.com/KRWpics
krw
2020-03-18 10:59:37 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by krw
Post by BrritSki
Post by krw
Post by Kate B
Post by krw
Post by Kate B
Post by BrritSki
This is encouraging, but we need to see this trend continue for
days if not weeks.
<https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/>
Makes one wonder if the initial strategy was the correct one as
the new one that so many were clamouring for [1] has not had time
to have an impact. Of course it could be that people were already
implementing the new strategy themselves and that is what made
the difference.
[1] often the same people who are complaining that pubs clubs etc
should have been officially closed so that they could make
insurance claims. Do they understand how insurance works ?  Lots
of people pay in so that if a few suffer a calamity it can pay
out, but if 100% suffer the calamity the money is going to run
out pretty soon, and they'll get back on average less than their
annual contribution.
Some theatres (which will really suffer, together with all the
freelance and casual workers who make them what they are)
apparently have a 'force majeure' clause in their insurances which
would indeed pay something if there was a Government closure.
And I have numerous bookings with ATG which are at best giving
vouchers - some of the bookings are for group outings and I have
absolutely no chance of getting the same group to book again for
another production on some unknown future date.  ATG are not being
pro-active and are expecting their customers to lodge claims -
which as they have decided to close really takes the biscuit - they
decided to close, so they should be making contact and full
repayment not some b***** stupid voucher I cannot use.  ATG
management need to be taken out and subjected to the virus or put
brains into gear.  They decided so they should be putting it
straight not relying on their customers.
They decided to shut the theatres because firstly people are
cancelling, and secondly the government and indeed the general
public and the media are putting moral pressure on them to close.
Not to mention the people who work in the theatres who are worried
about their own health or who have vulnerable dependents.
So what do you want them to do? Give back everyone's money just like
that? Then the companies are highly likely to go bust and the
theatres crumble. No shows at all.
ATG are no angels, but the situation is dire. They are appealing to
the public to support them. This link leads to articles in The Stage
- there's one about ATG halfway down, but just cast an eye on the
rest to get some idea of the catastrophe.
https://www.thestage.co.uk/features/promoted/2020/coronavirus-breaking-news-and-live-updates-as-the-theatre-industry-responds/
I expect them to contact me - for bookings for wife and myself I am
entirely happy to take vouchers.  Where I have a goup booking for
about 12 people whom I will have to refund I need cash.  But they
cancelled - they should be contacting me and telling me what is
possible NOT telling me to fill in a claim form.  I did not cancel -
they did, the onus is on them.  Very poor from a very major theatre
group.  I expect the person who withdrew their services to contact me
- they have my email - what is stopping them being grown ups?  Sorry
- they need not to be asking me to fill in forms when it is entirely
their decision.  I amd my friends were happy enough to go the
performance - we did not change our minds because a jumped up
comedian suggested that it might not be a good idea when frankly said
comedian does not know if it is a good idea or not.
I think you are being unreasonable and have no concept of the scale of
the problem from ATG's perspective.
ATG have systems, they have email addresses and the details of the
bookings - sorry but the onus is on them as they cancelled and they have
the information.  Putting the onus on the customer smacks of a lack of
customer service.
You have posted exactly the cause of my complaint. They could easily
have sent an email confirming the show was not happening and linking to
the form - why was that beyond them? They are not offering a cash
refund - but the other 12 in the party want their money back - they
cancelled - not me. They have got customer service completely wrong.
--
Kosmo Richard W
www.travelswmw.whitnet.uk
https://tinyurl.com/KRWpics
BrritSki
2020-03-18 11:04:09 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by krw
Post by BrritSki
Post by krw
Post by Kate B
Post by krw
Post by Kate B
Post by BrritSki
This is encouraging, but we need to see this trend continue for
days if not weeks.
<https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/>
Makes one wonder if the initial strategy was the correct one as
the new one that so many were clamouring for [1] has not had
time to have an impact. Of course it could be that people were
already implementing the new strategy themselves and that is
what made the difference.
[1] often the same people who are complaining that pubs clubs
etc should have been officially closed so that they could make
insurance claims. Do they understand how insurance works ?  Lots
of people pay in so that if a few suffer a calamity it can pay
out, but if 100% suffer the calamity the money is going to run
out pretty soon, and they'll get back on average less than their
annual contribution.
Some theatres (which will really suffer, together with all the
freelance and casual workers who make them what they are)
apparently have a 'force majeure' clause in their insurances
which would indeed pay something if there was a Government closure.
And I have numerous bookings with ATG which are at best giving
vouchers - some of the bookings are for group outings and I have
absolutely no chance of getting the same group to book again for
another production on some unknown future date.  ATG are not being
pro-active and are expecting their customers to lodge claims -
which as they have decided to close really takes the biscuit -
they decided to close, so they should be making contact and full
repayment not some b***** stupid voucher I cannot use.  ATG
management need to be taken out and subjected to the virus or put
brains into gear.  They decided so they should be putting it
straight not relying on their customers.
They decided to shut the theatres because firstly people are
cancelling, and secondly the government and indeed the general
public and the media are putting moral pressure on them to close.
Not to mention the people who work in the theatres who are worried
about their own health or who have vulnerable dependents.
So what do you want them to do? Give back everyone's money just
like that? Then the companies are highly likely to go bust and the
theatres crumble. No shows at all.
ATG are no angels, but the situation is dire. They are appealing to
the public to support them. This link leads to articles in The
Stage - there's one about ATG halfway down, but just cast an eye on
the rest to get some idea of the catastrophe.
https://www.thestage.co.uk/features/promoted/2020/coronavirus-breaking-news-and-live-updates-as-the-theatre-industry-responds/
I expect them to contact me - for bookings for wife and myself I am
entirely happy to take vouchers.  Where I have a goup booking for
about 12 people whom I will have to refund I need cash.  But they
cancelled - they should be contacting me and telling me what is
possible NOT telling me to fill in a claim form.  I did not cancel -
they did, the onus is on them.  Very poor from a very major theatre
group.  I expect the person who withdrew their services to contact
me - they have my email - what is stopping them being grown ups?
Sorry - they need not to be asking me to fill in forms when it is
entirely their decision.  I amd my friends were happy enough to go
the performance - we did not change our minds because a jumped up
comedian suggested that it might not be a good idea when frankly
said comedian does not know if it is a good idea or not.
I think you are being unreasonable and have no concept of the scale
of the problem from ATG's perspective.
ATG have systems, they have email addresses and the details of the
bookings - sorry but the onus is on them as they cancelled and they
have the information.  Putting the onus on the customer smacks of a
lack of customer service.
You have posted exactly the cause of my complaint.  They could easily
have sent an email confirming the show was not happening and linking to
the form - why was that beyond them?  They are not offering a cash
refund - but the other 12 in the party want their money back - they
cancelled - not me.  They have got customer service completely wrong.
The website says they are offering a refund, at least that's how I read it:

"My performance has been cancelled; how can I exchange?
All bookings for cancelled performances will be fully credited or exchanged"

I'm not here to make excuses for ATG though, just to point out that
these are unprecedented situations and some people cope better than
others...
krw
2020-03-18 11:24:11 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by BrritSki
Post by krw
Post by BrritSki
Post by krw
Post by Kate B
Post by krw
Post by Kate B
Post by BrritSki
This is encouraging, but we need to see this trend continue for
days if not weeks.
<https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/>
Makes one wonder if the initial strategy was the correct one as
the new one that so many were clamouring for [1] has not had
time to have an impact. Of course it could be that people were
already implementing the new strategy themselves and that is
what made the difference.
[1] often the same people who are complaining that pubs clubs
etc should have been officially closed so that they could make
insurance claims. Do they understand how insurance works ?
Lots of people pay in so that if a few suffer a calamity it can
pay out, but if 100% suffer the calamity the money is going to
run out pretty soon, and they'll get back on average less than
their annual contribution.
Some theatres (which will really suffer, together with all the
freelance and casual workers who make them what they are)
apparently have a 'force majeure' clause in their insurances
which would indeed pay something if there was a Government closure.
And I have numerous bookings with ATG which are at best giving
vouchers - some of the bookings are for group outings and I have
absolutely no chance of getting the same group to book again for
another production on some unknown future date.  ATG are not
being pro-active and are expecting their customers to lodge
claims - which as they have decided to close really takes the
biscuit - they decided to close, so they should be making contact
and full repayment not some b***** stupid voucher I cannot use.
ATG management need to be taken out and subjected to the virus or
put brains into gear.  They decided so they should be putting it
straight not relying on their customers.
They decided to shut the theatres because firstly people are
cancelling, and secondly the government and indeed the general
public and the media are putting moral pressure on them to close.
Not to mention the people who work in the theatres who are worried
about their own health or who have vulnerable dependents.
So what do you want them to do? Give back everyone's money just
like that? Then the companies are highly likely to go bust and the
theatres crumble. No shows at all.
ATG are no angels, but the situation is dire. They are appealing
to the public to support them. This link leads to articles in The
Stage - there's one about ATG halfway down, but just cast an eye
on the rest to get some idea of the catastrophe.
https://www.thestage.co.uk/features/promoted/2020/coronavirus-breaking-news-and-live-updates-as-the-theatre-industry-responds/
I expect them to contact me - for bookings for wife and myself I am
entirely happy to take vouchers.  Where I have a goup booking for
about 12 people whom I will have to refund I need cash.  But they
cancelled - they should be contacting me and telling me what is
possible NOT telling me to fill in a claim form.  I did not cancel
- they did, the onus is on them.  Very poor from a very major
theatre group.  I expect the person who withdrew their services to
contact me - they have my email - what is stopping them being grown
ups? Sorry - they need not to be asking me to fill in forms when it
is entirely their decision.  I amd my friends were happy enough to
go the performance - we did not change our minds because a jumped
up comedian suggested that it might not be a good idea when frankly
said comedian does not know if it is a good idea or not.
I think you are being unreasonable and have no concept of the scale
of the problem from ATG's perspective.
ATG have systems, they have email addresses and the details of the
bookings - sorry but the onus is on them as they cancelled and they
have the information.  Putting the onus on the customer smacks of a
lack of customer service.
You have posted exactly the cause of my complaint.  They could easily
have sent an email confirming the show was not happening and linking
to the form - why was that beyond them?  They are not offering a cash
refund - but the other 12 in the party want their money back - they
cancelled - not me.  They have got customer service completely wrong.
"My performance has been cancelled; how can I exchange?
All bookings for cancelled performances will be fully credited or exchanged"
I'm not here to make excuses for ATG though, just to point out that
these are unprecedented situations and some people cope better than
others...
They cancelled - they should be conveying that by message, the
performance is this evening - we could easily have gone to the theatre
as it is not in London and there should have been emails to stop us
travelling and explaining how they will make the refunds. Sorry but
they are not worth defending.
--
Kosmo Richard W
www.travelswmw.whitnet.uk
https://tinyurl.com/KRWpics
BrritSki
2020-03-18 11:54:06 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by krw
They cancelled - they should be conveying that by message, the
performance is this evening - we could easily have gone to the theatre
as it is not in London and there should have been emails to stop us
travelling and explaining how they will make the refunds.  Sorry but
they are not worth defending.
If this is the worst you have to be upset about you are very lucky :/
krw
2020-03-18 13:04:45 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by BrritSki
Post by krw
They cancelled - they should be conveying that by message, the
performance is this evening - we could easily have gone to the theatre
as it is not in London and there should have been emails to stop us
travelling and explaining how they will make the refunds.  Sorry but
they are not worth defending.
If this is the worst you have to be upset about you are very lucky :/
I am particularly upset that they cancelled the event in the first
place. This has got totally out of control and will actually not alter
the end result greatly.
--
Kosmo Richard W
www.travelswmw.whitnet.uk
https://tinyurl.com/KRWpics
BrritSki
2020-03-18 13:13:40 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by krw
Post by BrritSki
Post by krw
They cancelled - they should be conveying that by message, the
performance is this evening - we could easily have gone to the
theatre as it is not in London and there should have been emails to
stop us travelling and explaining how they will make the refunds.
Sorry but they are not worth defending.
If this is the worst you have to be upset about you are very lucky :/
I am particularly upset that they cancelled the event in the first
place.  This has got totally out of control and will actually not alter
the end result greatly.
Congratulations on the degree in epidemiology !
Kate B
2020-03-18 13:12:17 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by BrritSki
Post by krw
They cancelled - they should be conveying that by message, the
performance is this evening - we could easily have gone to the theatre
as it is not in London and there should have been emails to stop us
travelling and explaining how they will make the refunds.  Sorry but
they are not worth defending.
If this is the worst you have to be upset about you are very lucky :/
Absolutely. You really haven't got a clue, Kosmo, I'm afraid to say. The
theatre world is in meltdown, you cannot possibly compare it with
EasyJet as an organisation - it isn't even one organisation in that
sense of the word: do you know just how many theatres ATG is having to
deal with, plus all their companies? They have offered perfectly
sensible answers to all your questions.
--
Kate B
London
John Ashby
2020-03-18 13:24:30 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Kate B
Post by BrritSki
Post by krw
They cancelled - they should be conveying that by message, the
performance is this evening - we could easily have gone to the
theatre as it is not in London and there should have been emails to
stop us travelling and explaining how they will make the refunds.
Sorry but they are not worth defending.
If this is the worst you have to be upset about you are very lucky :/
Absolutely. You really haven't got a clue, Kosmo, I'm afraid to say. The
theatre world is in meltdown, you cannot possibly compare it with
EasyJet as an organisation - it isn't even one organisation in that
sense of the word: do you know just how many theatres ATG is having to
deal with, plus all their companies? They have offered perfectly
sensible answers to all your questions.
I get the impression that part of Kosmo's frustration is that the other
members of the dozen strong party booking are expecting him to bear all
the financial risk. If that's not the case,I apologise to them, if it is
then he should choose his friends more carefully.

john
krw
2020-03-18 13:39:42 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by John Ashby
Post by Kate B
Post by BrritSki
Post by krw
They cancelled - they should be conveying that by message, the
performance is this evening - we could easily have gone to the
theatre as it is not in London and there should have been emails to
stop us travelling and explaining how they will make the refunds.
Sorry but they are not worth defending.
If this is the worst you have to be upset about you are very lucky :/
Absolutely. You really haven't got a clue, Kosmo, I'm afraid to say.
The theatre world is in meltdown, you cannot possibly compare it with
EasyJet as an organisation - it isn't even one organisation in that
sense of the word: do you know just how many theatres ATG is having to
deal with, plus all their companies? They have offered perfectly
sensible answers to all your questions.
I get the impression that part of Kosmo's frustration is that the other
members of the dozen strong party booking are expecting him to bear all
the financial risk. If that's not the case,I apologise to them, if it is
then he should choose his friends more carefully.
john
I am an honourable man. I did the booking - they paid, none of us get
to see it - why should anyone be out of pocket because of a poor
decision which the person who changed their mind could not be bothered
to convey to their customers?
--
Kosmo Richard W
www.travelswmw.whitnet.uk
https://tinyurl.com/KRWpics
krw
2020-03-18 13:38:20 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Kate B
Post by BrritSki
Post by krw
They cancelled - they should be conveying that by message, the
performance is this evening - we could easily have gone to the
theatre as it is not in London and there should have been emails to
stop us travelling and explaining how they will make the refunds.
Sorry but they are not worth defending.
If this is the worst you have to be upset about you are very lucky :/
Absolutely. You really haven't got a clue, Kosmo, I'm afraid to say. The
theatre world is in meltdown, you cannot possibly compare it with
EasyJet as an organisation - it isn't even one organisation in that
sense of the word: do you know just how many theatres ATG is having to
deal with, plus all their companies? They have offered perfectly
sensible answers to all your questions.
No they have not. They should have issued emails to customers - they
have them and should use them. If they are not capable of emailing
their custsomers to advise them that they have closed and arre providing
refunds over coming days they do not deserve our custom when they
re-open. Simples. I still want to go to the theatre and they made the
decision to change that - which should be backed up by their actions,
not their inaction.
--
Kosmo Richard W
www.travelswmw.whitnet.uk
https://tinyurl.com/KRWpics
BrritSki
2020-03-18 10:28:36 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by BrritSki
This is encouraging, but we need to see this trend continue for days if
not weeks.
<https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/>
Not looking so good today :(

Interesting simulations in this article:
<https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/>
Vicky Ayech
2020-03-18 10:56:24 UTC
Reply
Permalink
On Wed, 18 Mar 2020 10:28:36 +0000, BrritSki
Post by BrritSki
Post by BrritSki
This is encouraging, but we need to see this trend continue for days if
not weeks.
<https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/>
Not looking so good today :(
<https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/>
"A recovered person can neither transmit simulitis to a healthy person
nor become sick again after coming in contact with a sick person."

I am sure I read that there are people who got the virus again after
being pronounced clear.
BrritSki
2020-03-18 11:01:16 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Vicky Ayech
On Wed, 18 Mar 2020 10:28:36 +0000, BrritSki
Post by BrritSki
Post by BrritSki
This is encouraging, but we need to see this trend continue for days if
not weeks.
<https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/>
Not looking so good today :(
<https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/>
"A recovered person can neither transmit simulitis to a healthy person
nor become sick again after coming in contact with a sick person."
I am sure I read that there are people who got the virus again after
being pronounced clear.
Yes, there are apparently some cases of second infections, so it's not
clear if herd immunity is possible or how long it will last.
John Ashby
2020-03-18 12:01:16 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by BrritSki
Post by Vicky Ayech
On Wed, 18 Mar 2020 10:28:36 +0000, BrritSki
Post by BrritSki
This is encouraging, but we need to see this trend continue for days if
not weeks.
<https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/>
Not looking so good today  :(
<https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/>
"A recovered person can neither transmit simulitis to a healthy person
nor become sick again after coming in contact with a sick person."
I am sure I read that there are people who got the virus again after
being pronounced clear.
Yes, there are apparently some cases of second infections, so it's not
clear if herd immunity is possible or how long it will last.
There are a very few such cases (a handful in many thousands), and it is
not clear if there has been a true second infection or if the
concentration of virus dipped below the test threshhold (or the test
gave a false negative) and then rose again.

There is an impression being given that the science is infallible, or
where it is seen to be contradicted that it is completely (possibly
mendaciously) wrong. Neither is true. The tests are imperfect, they will
yield both false negatives and false positives - presumably those
administering them have some idea of how many of each to expect and how
many are tolerable. The modelling is imperfect and will in any case
never give a precise "There will be 302,468 cases by June 23rd" answers,
but a range of likely outcomes. However, they are the best tools we've
got, if they are used with caution.

Herd immunity comes from a vaccine. What you (and Vallance) are talking
about would more correctly be called something like conferred immunity
(I just made up that term, but I bet there's something like it in the
epidemiological lexicon) where catching a disease like measles produces
an immune response which can deal with a measles challenge in the
future. We all had that until the various vaccines for childhood
illnesses meant we no longer had to take our pre-pubescent daughters to
rubella parties.

john
Vicky Ayech
2020-03-18 12:06:19 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by John Ashby
Post by BrritSki
Post by Vicky Ayech
On Wed, 18 Mar 2020 10:28:36 +0000, BrritSki
Post by BrritSki
This is encouraging, but we need to see this trend continue for days if
not weeks.
<https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/>
Not looking so good today  :(
<https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/>
"A recovered person can neither transmit simulitis to a healthy person
nor become sick again after coming in contact with a sick person."
I am sure I read that there are people who got the virus again after
being pronounced clear.
Yes, there are apparently some cases of second infections, so it's not
clear if herd immunity is possible or how long it will last.
There are a very few such cases (a handful in many thousands), and it is
not clear if there has been a true second infection or if the
concentration of virus dipped below the test threshhold (or the test
gave a false negative) and then rose again.
There is an impression being given that the science is infallible, or
where it is seen to be contradicted that it is completely (possibly
mendaciously) wrong. Neither is true. The tests are imperfect, they will
yield both false negatives and false positives - presumably those
administering them have some idea of how many of each to expect and how
many are tolerable. The modelling is imperfect and will in any case
never give a precise "There will be 302,468 cases by June 23rd" answers,
but a range of likely outcomes. However, they are the best tools we've
got, if they are used with caution.
Herd immunity comes from a vaccine. What you (and Vallance) are talking
about would more correctly be called something like conferred immunity
(I just made up that term, but I bet there's something like it in the
epidemiological lexicon) where catching a disease like measles produces
an immune response which can deal with a measles challenge in the
future. We all had that until the various vaccines for childhood
illnesses meant we no longer had to take our pre-pubescent daughters to
rubella parties.
john
What worries me is that the UK is not testing widely and in the
general population but only those ill enough to go to hospital so they
are not adding to the data to be able to work out more about how it
spreads etc.
John Ashby
2020-03-18 12:11:04 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Vicky Ayech
Post by John Ashby
Post by BrritSki
Post by Vicky Ayech
On Wed, 18 Mar 2020 10:28:36 +0000, BrritSki
Post by BrritSki
This is encouraging, but we need to see this trend continue for days if
not weeks.
<https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/>
Not looking so good today  :(
<https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/>
"A recovered person can neither transmit simulitis to a healthy person
nor become sick again after coming in contact with a sick person."
I am sure I read that there are people who got the virus again after
being pronounced clear.
Yes, there are apparently some cases of second infections, so it's not
clear if herd immunity is possible or how long it will last.
There are a very few such cases (a handful in many thousands), and it is
not clear if there has been a true second infection or if the
concentration of virus dipped below the test threshhold (or the test
gave a false negative) and then rose again.
There is an impression being given that the science is infallible, or
where it is seen to be contradicted that it is completely (possibly
mendaciously) wrong. Neither is true. The tests are imperfect, they will
yield both false negatives and false positives - presumably those
administering them have some idea of how many of each to expect and how
many are tolerable. The modelling is imperfect and will in any case
never give a precise "There will be 302,468 cases by June 23rd" answers,
but a range of likely outcomes. However, they are the best tools we've
got, if they are used with caution.
Herd immunity comes from a vaccine. What you (and Vallance) are talking
about would more correctly be called something like conferred immunity
(I just made up that term, but I bet there's something like it in the
epidemiological lexicon) where catching a disease like measles produces
an immune response which can deal with a measles challenge in the
future. We all had that until the various vaccines for childhood
illnesses meant we no longer had to take our pre-pubescent daughters to
rubella parties.
john
What worries me is that the UK is not testing widely and in the
general population but only those ill enough to go to hospital so they
are not adding to the data to be able to work out more about how it
spreads etc.
I totally agree.

john
Nick Odell
2020-03-18 16:17:42 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by John Ashby
Post by Vicky Ayech
Post by John Ashby
Post by BrritSki
Post by Vicky Ayech
On Wed, 18 Mar 2020 10:28:36 +0000, BrritSki
Post by BrritSki
This is encouraging, but we need to see this trend continue for days if
not weeks.
<https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/>
Not looking so good today  :(
<https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/>
"A recovered person can neither transmit simulitis to a healthy person
nor become sick again after coming in contact with a sick person."
I am sure I read that there are people who got the virus again after
being pronounced clear.
Yes, there are apparently some cases of second infections, so it's not
clear if herd immunity is possible or how long it will last.
There are a very few such cases (a handful in many thousands), and it is
not clear if there has been a true second infection or if the
concentration of virus dipped below the test threshhold (or the test
gave a false negative) and then rose again.
There is an impression being given that the science is infallible, or
where it is seen to be contradicted that it is completely (possibly
mendaciously) wrong. Neither is true. The tests are imperfect, they will
yield both false negatives and false positives - presumably those
administering them have some idea of how many of each to expect and how
many are tolerable. The modelling is imperfect and will in any case
never give a precise "There will be 302,468 cases by June 23rd" answers,
but a range of likely outcomes. However, they are the best tools we've
got, if they are used with caution.
Herd immunity comes from a vaccine. What you (and Vallance) are talking
about would more correctly be called something like conferred immunity
(I just made up that term, but I bet there's something like it in the
epidemiological lexicon) where catching a disease like measles produces
an immune response which can deal with a measles challenge in the
future. We all had that until the various vaccines for childhood
illnesses meant we no longer had to take our pre-pubescent daughters to
rubella parties.
john
What worries me is that the UK is not testing widely and in the
general population but only those ill enough to go to hospital so they
are not adding to the data to be able to work out more about how it
spreads etc.
I totally agree.
A non-statistician writes:

Theoretically there are techniques to take the information you have
have gained from a narrow but known range of respondants and
extrapolate the results into the whole community. People like YouGov
do it all the time to predict the results of elections and
referendums.

Come to think of it...

Nick
John Ashby
2020-03-18 13:33:15 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Nick Odell
Post by John Ashby
Post by Vicky Ayech
Post by John Ashby
Post by BrritSki
Post by Vicky Ayech
On Wed, 18 Mar 2020 10:28:36 +0000, BrritSki
Post by BrritSki
This is encouraging, but we need to see this trend continue for days if
not weeks.
<https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/>
Not looking so good today  :(
<https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/>
"A recovered person can neither transmit simulitis to a healthy person
nor become sick again after coming in contact with a sick person."
I am sure I read that there are people who got the virus again after
being pronounced clear.
Yes, there are apparently some cases of second infections, so it's not
clear if herd immunity is possible or how long it will last.
There are a very few such cases (a handful in many thousands), and it is
not clear if there has been a true second infection or if the
concentration of virus dipped below the test threshhold (or the test
gave a false negative) and then rose again.
There is an impression being given that the science is infallible, or
where it is seen to be contradicted that it is completely (possibly
mendaciously) wrong. Neither is true. The tests are imperfect, they will
yield both false negatives and false positives - presumably those
administering them have some idea of how many of each to expect and how
many are tolerable. The modelling is imperfect and will in any case
never give a precise "There will be 302,468 cases by June 23rd" answers,
but a range of likely outcomes. However, they are the best tools we've
got, if they are used with caution.
Herd immunity comes from a vaccine. What you (and Vallance) are talking
about would more correctly be called something like conferred immunity
(I just made up that term, but I bet there's something like it in the
epidemiological lexicon) where catching a disease like measles produces
an immune response which can deal with a measles challenge in the
future. We all had that until the various vaccines for childhood
illnesses meant we no longer had to take our pre-pubescent daughters to
rubella parties.
john
What worries me is that the UK is not testing widely and in the
general population but only those ill enough to go to hospital so they
are not adding to the data to be able to work out more about how it
spreads etc.
I totally agree.
Theoretically there are techniques to take the information you have
have gained from a narrow but known range of respondants and
extrapolate the results into the whole community. People like YouGov
do it all the time to predict the results of elections and
referendums.
Come to think of it...
Nick
I take your (non-serious) point, but on a serious note, those methods do
rely on having a representative sample which the current testing regime
does not provide.

john
Joe Kerr
2020-03-18 13:42:03 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Nick Odell
Post by John Ashby
Post by Vicky Ayech
Post by John Ashby
Post by BrritSki
Post by Vicky Ayech
On Wed, 18 Mar 2020 10:28:36 +0000, BrritSki
Post by BrritSki
This is encouraging, but we need to see this trend continue for days if
not weeks.
<https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/>
Not looking so good today  :(
<https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/>
"A recovered person can neither transmit simulitis to a healthy person
nor become sick again after coming in contact with a sick person."
I am sure I read that there are people who got the virus again after
being pronounced clear.
Yes, there are apparently some cases of second infections, so it's not
clear if herd immunity is possible or how long it will last.
There are a very few such cases (a handful in many thousands), and it is
not clear if there has been a true second infection or if the
concentration of virus dipped below the test threshhold (or the test
gave a false negative) and then rose again.
There is an impression being given that the science is infallible, or
where it is seen to be contradicted that it is completely (possibly
mendaciously) wrong. Neither is true. The tests are imperfect, they will
yield both false negatives and false positives - presumably those
administering them have some idea of how many of each to expect and how
many are tolerable. The modelling is imperfect and will in any case
never give a precise "There will be 302,468 cases by June 23rd" answers,
but a range of likely outcomes. However, they are the best tools we've
got, if they are used with caution.
Herd immunity comes from a vaccine. What you (and Vallance) are talking
about would more correctly be called something like conferred immunity
(I just made up that term, but I bet there's something like it in the
epidemiological lexicon) where catching a disease like measles produces
an immune response which can deal with a measles challenge in the
future. We all had that until the various vaccines for childhood
illnesses meant we no longer had to take our pre-pubescent daughters to
rubella parties.
john
What worries me is that the UK is not testing widely and in the
general population but only those ill enough to go to hospital so they
are not adding to the data to be able to work out more about how it
spreads etc.
I totally agree.
I think I read that there is a bit of a backlog in the labs doing the
testing. In which case doing extra tests will likely delay results for
some of the important cases where results are needed. If I didn't read
this then it is best if you ignore me.
Post by Nick Odell
Theoretically there are techniques to take the information you have
have gained from a narrow but known range of respondants and
extrapolate the results into the whole community. People like YouGov
do it all the time to predict the results of elections and
referendums.
Come to think of it...
Nick
Covered in More or Less https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p086krm0
--
Ric
J. P. Gilliver (John)
2020-03-18 16:22:59 UTC
Reply
Permalink
On Wed, 18 Mar 2020 at 12:01:16, John Ashby <***@yahoo.com>
wrote:
[]
Post by John Ashby
Herd immunity comes from a vaccine. What you (and Vallance) are talking
about would more correctly be called something like conferred immunity
(I just made up that term, but I bet there's something like it in the
epidemiological lexicon) where catching a disease like measles produces
Acquired immunity?
Post by John Ashby
an immune response which can deal with a measles challenge in the
future. We all had that until the various vaccines for childhood
illnesses meant we no longer had to take our pre-pubescent daughters to
rubella parties.
Vaccines do what measles parties and the like used to - our immunity to
whatever they're supposed to protect against is no weaker; they just
teach our immune system using a safer variant than we'd have got at the
party. (And of course they ensure we do get it, rather than just hoping
we would at such parties.)
Post by John Ashby
john
John
--
J. P. Gilliver. UMRA: 1960/<1985 MB++G()AL-IS-Ch++(p)***@T+H+Sh0!:`)DNAf

it is easy to make up a lie, but it can take much more time and effort to
convincingly refute it. - Patrick Cockburn, i, 2016-9-24
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